Cap and Trade

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Khurais Oilfield Opens - And Helps Us Comprehend Energy Instability

Khurais Oil Field - Ghawar's little brother - began production recently. Here is an article from the NY Times from a year ago that details the field and the development of the facility. It has been a remarkable undertaking, the scale of which should not be underestimated.

Khurais will produce 1.2 million barrels a day, which is about 1.5% of world demand (per the IEA). The IEA also conservatively estimates in the most recent World Energy Outlook that demand will grow at 1.2% per year worldwide.

Basically, we need the equivalent of 1+ Khurais each year, just to keep up with world oil demand growth. Sound like a challenge?

Alternatively, see what Forbes wrote about the Haynesville Shale...enough natural gas to last a decade...

Energy and Sustainability with the CEO of Coke

Watch this between the 10 and 13 minute mark. Interesting perspective.

Oil Market Update

Another Take on Peak Oil

Switching Horses on Oil Strategy

The WSJ reports on big oil's quandary...can't make new capital investment in exploration cause it just don't pay...

Thunder Horse, which started up in 2008, will provide 42% of BP's incremental upstream production over the next three years, according to analysts at J.P. Morgan Chase. Unfortunately, it is also one of BP's few discoveries of such scale in recent memory. Neil McMahon of Sanford C. Bernstein calculates that less than half of BP's additions to reserves over the past five years have come through its exploration efforts.

Malcolm Gladwell on Underdogs and Inliers

Malcom Gladwell is an author I enjoy greatly. And I recently found two pieces of his that are worth your time. One is about achieving success as an underdog. The next is about successful people who get missed by the media - "inliers" in his vernacular.

From the New Yorker:

Insurgents, though, operate in real time. Lawrence [of Arabia] hit the Turks, in that stretch in the spring of 1917, nearly every day, because he knew that the more he accelerated the pace of combat the more the war became a battle of endurance—and endurance battles favor the insurgent. “And it happened as the Philistine arose and was drawing near David that David hastened and ran out from the lines toward the Philistine,” the Bible says. “And he reached his hand into the pouch and took from there a stone and slung it and struck the Philistine in his forehead.” The second sentence—the slingshot part—is what made David famous. But the first sentence matters just as much. David broke the rhythm of the encounter. He speeded it up. “The sudden astonishment when David sprints forward must have frozen Goliath, making him a better target,” the poet and critic Robert Pinsky writes in “The Life of David.” Pinsky calls David a “point guard ready to flick the basketball here or there.” David pressed. That’s what Davids do when they want to beat Goliaths.

From Sports Illustrated:

Nick Faldo [is a golf inlier]. Think about it. He wins six majors. He's the dominant golfer of the late 1980s and early 1990s. But we don't mention him in the same breath as, say, Arnold Palmer, even though Palmer only won one more major than Faldo. And why? Because Palmer had Nicklaus and Faldo had, well, Scott Hoch, Mark McNulty and John Cook. Now imagine he comes along in the late '90s and goes toe-to-toe with Tiger Woods from the beginning. All of a sudden Faldo gets immeasurably magnified by the comparison. I'm not saying he'd beat Tiger. (Are you kidding?) But he's the perfect foil. I got a tape recently of the 1996 Masters, when Greg Norman had his epic collapse on the back nine. That tournament is always explained in terms of how Norman choked, as if there were something inside him that inevitably caused him to surrender a six-stroke lead. Nonsense. Surely the key to that whole collapse is that he's paired with Faldo, and Faldo in his prime was terrifying. He was surly and tough and charismatic and emotionally and psychologically bulletproof, and I feel like he'd do a better job of getting under Tiger's skin than anyone out there right now. What's the defining fact about Faldo? His ex-girlfriend once destroyed his Porsche with a 9-iron. The corresponding fact for Woods is that his favorite band is Hootie and the Blowfish. Hootie and the Blowfish? What's Faldo's favorite band? Joy Division? Or some kind of obscure Welsh thrash band too hard core for American radio?

Peak Oil Update

Here are three presentations by Matthew Simmons, the Twilight in the Desert guy.

Mr. Simmons is a big energy bull. The jury is still out as to whether he is full of bull. But his presentations are quite compelling.

60 Minutes on Clean Coal Technology

LTCM Guest Lecture at MIT

One of the Long Term Capital Management folks, talking about the implosion of this fund from back in the 90's.

* The first 1:05 of the talk is "facts and fictions about the LTCM meltdown"
* Lessons learned begins at 1 hour and 6 minutes.
* Q and A at about 1:10

Customer Programs in Electricity

The majority of postings on this site are related to commodity markets. Why? Because I find them interesting and dynamic, and because my readers feel the same way. Commodity markets are inherently interesting because they change so quickly. Also (and this is kind of a drag), we are exposed to commodity price in our businesses.

So if the majority of postings are on the drivers of commodity prices, would it surprise you to know that I feel that commodity price fundamentals are not the most important thing that this site communicates? It is true...most of my postings are interesting and important (arguably) - but not crucial to business success.

The following post IS crucial to business success. It deals with providing customers choice and certainty. I have posted previously about how developing customer programs like budget billing, fixed price offerings, and not-to-exceed (cap) price offerings - and how these programs are integral to a business's success. Why do I feel this way? They create customer freedom to choose. Customer certainty. Customer flexibility. Customers can be offered program entry points at multiple times during the year and customers have the ability to spread their costs evenly over a number of months are the happiest customers. Per Gallon Price becomes less of a hurdle. Value is added above the delivery of the molecule into the customer tank.

Here is more proof, via Yahoo Finance:

DALLAS (AP) -- At TXU Energy, the biggest electric company in Texas, the fastest-growing billing plan is one that lets customers lock in the price of power for one or two years.

"It's easier to plan that way, and I think you're saving money," says Brian Bell, an advertising salesman who signed a 2-year, fixed-price contract for electricity at the 1,500-square-foot Dallas town house he bought last year.

Other homeowners across the country are locking in prices now on electricity for summer cooling and heating oil for next winter. Heating oil prices are nearly 60 percent lower than they were at this time last year, according to Energy Department figures.

Natural gas prices have fallen as well, which not only affects the price homeowners pay for gas but the price of electricity produced by power plants that run on gas.

Our deregulated competition is beginning to offer flexible payment terms - not selling price but selling value to the consumer. Will our industry be early adopters of this customer service, or will our competitors build a competitive beachhead and some momentum in this regard?

Embracing these programs satisfy a customer need. They allow the local propane company to offer piece of mind to the customer, and make paying the heat bill feel like paying the cell phone bill, or the water bill.

In grad school, I learned that businesses should "make it easy for their customers to give them money." The more flexible our businesses become to our customers' desires, the more customers will embrace us as their supplier - regardless of price.

The Curve of Forward Prices

An article containing some good explanation about what the forward price curve represents can be found at DownstreamToday.com. Here is an excerpt:

Looking at the prices of long-dated oil futures can be useful as they provide the best tradable indication of the future expected price of the commodity. While long-dated futures contracts are traded less frequently than their near-month counterparts, the December contract is an exception as speculators and producers attempt to lock in or hedge oil exposure for year-end.

Oil producers use the futures prices as a key benchmark for domestic production, using the contracts to hedge current inventory or using the price to evaluate potential exploration projects.

"The forward price of crude oil is a combination of the need to fund existing stock levels and trading flows, which in turn embody price expectations," said Lawrence Eagles, global head of commodities research at JPMorgan.

While long-dated futures contracts are still much higher than the near month, a situation described as contango, the forward curve has been flattening out recently as traders have adjusted expectations after weeks worth of data from the Energy Information Administration, an Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting and bulk shipping statistics. As the curve flattens, the long-dated contracts fall at a faster rate than the near-month contract, or the near-month contract rises faster than those further out. A year-end rally could be thwarted by continued weak demand and burgeoning supplies. Oil demand is forecast to fall to the lowest level in five years, according to the Energy Information Administration. U.S. crude oil inventories are at 18-year highs.

A Fantasticly Entertaining Waste of Time

The Washington Post held its third annual Peep-Art Competition recently.

HERE are the 20 top reader diorama submissions.

Oil Futures Market Primer

Here is a lecture by Robert Shiller of Yale on the uses of stock and commodities futures. It spends a great amount of time focusing on oil market fundamentals. It takes an hour to get through - but if you are a propane of heating oil marketer this is a solid and easy to understand primer on a key market and how it works.

OPEC Oil Market Report for March

Monthly Oil Market Highlights in an audio podcast, as OPEC sees them...

* Outlook is Bearish as world GDP is being revised downward.
* World GDP is contracting by about 1%

* Supply growth is slowing, too
* Days of forward supply (at 60 days) are the highest they have been in 15 years