The R-Squared Energy Blog has a great post about crude oil prices and the nature of predictions. The focus of the commentary is the extreme difference between the predictions of the Goldman analyst Arjun Murti (The BULL) and Deutsche Bank's Paul Sankey (The BEAR). The entire post and its links are worthwhile. This is a statement that struck me as precient.
There are some things to be said about predictions. If a person makes enough predictions, they are going to miss some - no matter how well they know their subject matter. On the other hand, when many people are making predictions, some will inevitably get it right for the wrong reasons.
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