Thursday, April 9, 2009

Causes of the Oil Shock

This article is from Econbrowser, a blog from Dr. James Hamilton - a professor from the University of San Diego.

It discusses a paper he wrote on the causes of the oil price rally of 2007-2008. It is formal and academic, and there are charts and formulas. But here is the bottom line: Dr. Hamilton agrees with my thesis regarding the rally. Dr Hamilton states:
"Growth in world income was the primary cause behind an increase in world petroleum consumption of 5 million barrels per day between 2003 and 2005, a 6% increase over the two years. The next two years (2006 and 2007) saw even faster economic growth (10.1% cumulative two-year growth), with Chinese oil consumption alone increasing 870,000 barrels per day. Yet between 2005 and 2007, global oil production stagnated.
My article (from early January) is here.

The cool thing is that Dr. Hamilton and I agree on the causes. He builds better looking models, though.

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